日本地球惑星科学連合

Intensity forecast of tropical cyclones (TCs) has still been a challenging task whereas TC track forecasts have constantly improved over the past several decades owing to advances in numerical weather prediction models as well as observational capabilities. This is partly due to the difficulties in TC initialization because TCs occur and remain almost throughout their existence over the ocean, where observational data have generally been scarce. In this study, TCVital observations are assimilated with an ensemble Kalman filtering, and their impacts are estimated by comparing with the conventional bogus assimilation scheme.