Oral A1 Environmental Variability and Prediction

4:00 PM - 4:15 PM JST(7:00 AM - 7:15 AM UTC)

[gv57-3Qb-01] Seasonal prediction of wind/wave/current for ship operation planning

*Yasumasa Miyazawa¹ (1. Japan Agancey for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) (Japan))

Prediction of oceanic states (wind, wave, and current) has been utilized for safe and efficient marine transportation. Predictability of wind in weather forecasting is generally lost within 10 days because of its chaotic nature, and that of wave and current is also significantly affected by wind variability. However, sub-seasonal and seasonal predictability of the oceanic states in the time scale longer than 10 days has not been well utilized for marine transportation. Un-negligible biases and errors represented by available seasonal forecast data provided from atmosphere-ocean coupling physical models hinder the utilization of the seasonal forecast data. Furthermore, fully utilization of the seasonal forecast data requires intensive survey of possible applications based on in-depth discussion between users and forecast data providers. To resolve such difficulty and establish the practical application of seasonal prediction for marine transportation, recently we have launched a R & D program for developing a seasonal predication simulator in a framework of close collaboration among private ship management companies, R&D companies, universities, and research institutes including JAMSTEC. Here we introduce our plan and discuss some scientific and technical issues for skillful prediction.