Oral A1 Environmental Variability and Prediction

4:45 PM - 5:00 PM JST(7:45 AM - 8:00 AM UTC)

[gv57-3Qb-04] Modeling and prediction of Arabian Sea cyclonic storms using WRF modeling system

*KUVAR SATYA SINGH (1. Vellore Institute of Technology (India))

The present study examines the performance of high resolution WRF modeling system in simulation/prediction of Arabian Sea cyclonic storms. The model initial and lateral boundary conditions derived from the FNL analysis and integration using a double nested domains 15 km and 3 km. The initial conditions for the model was improved through three dimensional data assimilation technique by using satellite radiances with conventional observations from NCEP. The study also used regional background error statistics to improve the model initial condition. The model performance was evaluated by using 3 km results and compared with available observational datasets namely best fit data from the Indian Metrological Department (IMD) and CIRA - Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere. The statistical analysis was also conducted in this study in terms of bias, mean error, and standard deviation, and it exhibited the significance and importance of the prediction of Arabian Sea cyclones