Presentation Information

2:45 PM - 3:00 PM JST(5:45 AM - 6:00 AM UTC)

[2B10]Evaluation of applicability of a source term estimation method based on Bayesian inference to real-time source term estimation in emergency

*Hiroaki Terada¹, Haruyasu Nagai¹, Katsunori Tsuduki¹, Masanao Kadowaki¹ (1. JAEA)

Keywords:

emergency response,source term,Bayesian inference,atmospheric dispersion,numerical simulation,Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident,WSPEEDI

We have developed a Bayesian-inference based method to estimate source term of radioactive materials released into the atmosphere in nuclear accidents by comprehensive comparison of atmospheric dispersion simulations and environmental monitoring data. By a hypothetical real-time source term estimation experiment using data of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident, the applicability to emergency of the method was evaluated.

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