Presentation Information
[2H6-OS-2c-03]Impact of Brand and Exchange Rate on Price Formation in Japanese Used Android Smartphone Market
〇Yoshihiko Ichikawa1, Yuki Hirano2, Yuhei Imura2, Yusuke Nakajo2, Nao Kuwamoto2, Koshiro Tsutsumi2, Kei Nakagawa3 (1. Insight Edge, Inc., 2. SUMITOMO CORPORATION, 3. Osaka Metropolitan University)
Keywords:
Price Forecast,XGBoost,Time Series Analysis,Smartphone,Secondhand market
The market for used smartphones has been growing as new smartphone prices have been rising due to higher semiconductor costs and a weaker yen. This study aims to identify what determines used smartphone prices, so that purchasing companies can set better prices, consumers can make better purchase decisions, and the circular economy can be promoted.
Previous studies have examined price differences across sales and service channels. However, there is little evidence on how smartphone brands, particularly Android devices, affect used smartphone prices, or on how the USD/JPY exchange rate is linked to used smartphone prices in Japan, where smartphones rely heavily on imports.
We analyze price drivers in the Japanese used smartphone market using monthly purchase price data by brand from 2018 to 2024.
We find that the most important factor is time since release, and Apple devices depreciate more slowly than Samsung devices. Short-term exchange rate changes do not directly affect prices, but for Samsung devices, exchange rate movements over the past 3–6 months show a weak positive correlation with price changes about 3–6 months later. We also use XGBoost to confirm the effects of months since release, exchange rates, model type, and other variables.
Previous studies have examined price differences across sales and service channels. However, there is little evidence on how smartphone brands, particularly Android devices, affect used smartphone prices, or on how the USD/JPY exchange rate is linked to used smartphone prices in Japan, where smartphones rely heavily on imports.
We analyze price drivers in the Japanese used smartphone market using monthly purchase price data by brand from 2018 to 2024.
We find that the most important factor is time since release, and Apple devices depreciate more slowly than Samsung devices. Short-term exchange rate changes do not directly affect prices, but for Samsung devices, exchange rate movements over the past 3–6 months show a weak positive correlation with price changes about 3–6 months later. We also use XGBoost to confirm the effects of months since release, exchange rates, model type, and other variables.