Presentation Information
[C07-02]Post-Pandemic Influenza Epidemiology in Korea: Assessing the Roles of Absolute Humidity, Seasonality, and Transmission Dynamics.
*Wasim Abbas1, Yeonsu Lee1,2, Sangil Kim3, Hyojung Lee1,2 (1. Nonlinear Dynamics and Mathematical Application Center, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Republic of Korea (Korea), 2. Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, 41566, Republic of Korea (Korea), 3. Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University, Pusan, 46241, Republic of Korea (Korea))
Keywords:
Influenza,Absolute humidity,Parameter estimation
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the epidemiological patterns of influenza in the Republic of Korea, leading to the need for a detailed analysis of trends before and after the pandemic. This study focuses on developing seasonal influenza patterns, emphasizing how absolute humidity and seasonality affect transmission. By expanding on previous research, which included guinea pig models demonstrating a link between absolute humidity and influenza transmission, a seasonally adjusted Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model was employed. Parameter estimation based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) for the 2022/23 influenza season indicates a prolonged recovery period compared to before the pandemic. The notably larger initial exposed population suggests increased transmissibility after the easing of pandemic restrictions. Our analysis has also revealed an average lag of 2.7 weeks between the effective reproduction number and the peak in case incidence, underscoring the unique post-pandemic transmission dynamics influenced by regional and seasonal factors. Furthermore, the higher baseline population reporting symptoms indicates a shift in healthcare-seeking behavior following the COVID-19 pandemic. These results underscore the importance of adaptive strategies for managing influenza that incorporate strong infection control measures and medical responses in the post-pandemic period.