[C20] Infectious Diseases

[C20-02] A Mathematical model for HIV/AIDS-Mpox Coinfection Considering Treatment and Chaotic Behaviour

*Dipo Aldila¹, Joseph Paez Chavez², Hakan Ahmad Fatahillah¹ (1. Department of Mathematics, Universitas Indonesia (Indonesia), 2. Center for Applied Dynamical Systems and Computational Methods (CADSCOM), Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Escuela Superior Polit\'ecnica del Litoral (Ecuador))

Keywords:

HIV/AIDS,Mpox,Coinfection,Basic reproduction number,Chaotic behaviour,Global sensitivity analysis

In this talk, we introduce a coinfection model describing the interaction between HIV/AIDS and mpox, incorporating case detection and treatment for coinfected individuals. We analyze both analytically and numerically the existence and stability of key equilibrium points, including the disease-free equilibrium, dominant endemic equilibria, and coinfection endemic equilibria. Using path-following techniques, we demonstrate that the model exhibits complex dynamics, such as periodic solutions and chaotic behavior. These results highlight the need for carefully designed intervention strategies, as the presence of chaos can lead to unpredictable epidemic outcomes. To identify the most influential factors, we perform a global sensitivity analysis using the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC)method, which reveals the parameters that most significantly affect disease dynamics.