[C20] Infectious Diseases

[C20-04] A Mathematical Model for Infectious Disease Spread with Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Compartments and Consideration of Waning Immunity

*Nursanti Anggriani¹, Rika Amelia¹, Sanubari Tansah Tresna¹, Dhika Surya Pangestu¹ (1. Padjadjaran University (Indonesia))

Keywords:

Asymptomatic transmission,Waning Immunity,Basic Reproduction Number

Understanding the spread of infectious diseases is essential for developing accurate mathematical models to predict epidemic dynamics. This study proposes and analyzes a compartmental model based on incident data from West Java Province, Indonesia. The model incorporates asymptomatic and symptomatic infections as well as waning immunity, and is formulated using a system of differential equations. The population is divided into seven compartments: Susceptible, Exposed, Asymptomatic Infected, Symptomatic Infected, Recovered, Re-susceptible, and Quarantined. Both analytical and numerical results indicate the potential for an outbreak when the basic reproduction number R₀ exceeds 1. Simulations show that waning immunity plays a significant role in the persistence or re-emergence of outbreaks. These findings emphasize the need to incorporate immunity dynamics and control strategies into epidemic modeling.