[MS03] Biomedical Imaging in Disease Diagnosis

[MS03-01] Sensitivity Analysis of COVID-19 and Tuberculosis Coinfection Dynamics with Control Strategies

*Praveen Kumar Anagandula¹ (1. NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WARANGAL (India))

Keywords:

Coinfection,Backward bifurcation,Optimal control

A compartmental extended SEIHR-based model is developed to simulate the transmission of TB and COVID-19. The positivity and bioundedness of the model are demonstrated. The Basic Reproduction Numbers ($R_{0T}$ and $R_{0C}$) are calculated for TB and COVID-19 models using the Next Generation Matrix (NGM) method. The individual models exhibit backward bifurcation when the effective reproduction number is less than 1. Local stability analysis is performed using Lienard-Chipart criteria. Sensitivity analysis is conducted using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) methods. Optimal control analysis is performed to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions. The study found that TB and COVID-19 persist even when the Basic Reproduction Numbers ($R_{0T}$ and $R_{0C}$) are less than one, due to backward bifurcation. The co-infection model showed that mask usage significantly reduces both infections. The LHS-PRCC analysis revealed that variables with low p-values strongly influenced the model. Key parameters, including inflow rate, COVID-19 transmission, TB reinfection, and co-infection progression, exhibited strong correlations. Optimal control measures, including isolation, testing, and treatment, effectively reduced contact between COVID-19-exposed and TB-infected individuals. Post-isolation played a pivotal role in strengthening immunity and aiding recovery from the disease. Implementing all control strategies mitigated the growth of infections and accelerated their decline.