[MS06] The Interplay of Life: Species, Ecosystems, and Disease Dynamics

[MS06-02] Disease spread model with stochastic transmission and contact rates

Angelo Eroles Marasigan¹, *Diane Carmeliza Navera Cuaresma¹ (1. University of the Philippines Los Banos (Philippines))

Keywords:

mean-reversion mechanism,jump-diffusion model

Traditional epidemiological models often assume constant transmission and contact rates. However, in reality, disease spread is influenced by random fluctuations brought by the temporal dynamics of these rates, which are justified by human behavior and environmental changes. Hence, this study investigates disease spread modeling with stochastic contact and transmission rates. We develop a framework incorporating noise to model the randomness in both of these parameters. Our approach integrates a time-varying contact scheme, where interactions among the population and disease progression follow probabilistic patterns. The parameters can change values discretely according to a regime-switching mechanism driven by a continuous-time 2-state Markov chain. We explore the implications of different stochastic scenarios and analyze how random fluctuations affect epidemic trajectories. By comparing our stochastic model to deterministic counterparts, we show that incorporating randomness can lead to varying predictions in specific contexts. This leads to the importance of considering stochasticity in the parameters involved in a disease model, improving preparedness and response strategies for emerging infectious diseases.