Presentation Information
[MS06-04]Modelling the Epidemiological and Economic Impact of Maternal Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Vaccination in Australia
*Allen Lamarca Nazareno1,2, James Wood2, David Muscatello2, Alexandra Hogan2, Nusrat Homaira3,4,5, Anthony Newall2 (1. Institute of Mathematical Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna (Philippines), 2. School of Population Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, UNSW Sydney, New South Wales (Australia), 3. Discipline of Pediatrics and Child Health, School of Clinical Medicine, UNSW Sydney, New South Wales (Australia), 4. Respiratory Department, Sydney Children's Hospital, Randwick (Australia), 5. James P. Grant School of Public Health, Dhaka (Bangladesh))
Keywords:
Mathematical modelling,Communicable disease,Economic evaluation,Disease burden
Background
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory illness, particularly among young infants at the highest risk of hospitalization. With the approval of a maternal RSV vaccine in Australia, assessing its population-level health benefits and economic impact is essential.
Methods
We developed an age-structured compartmental model to simulate RSV transmission and evaluate the impact of a year-round maternal RSV vaccination program on infections and hospitalizations in Australia. The model incorporated maternal-infant interactions to better capture herd effects. By integrating the dynamic transmission model with an economic evaluation framework, we estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.
Results
Assuming base-case vaccine efficacy, 70% coverage, and six months of protection, RSV hospitalizations were projected to decline by 60% in infants aged <3 months and by 40% in those aged 3–5 months, with relatively small herd effects. Most cost savings resulted from preventing hospitalizations in infants aged under six months, which accounted for 82% of total cost savings. The majority of QALY gains stemmed from reduced mortality in older adults (via herd effects) and to a lesser extent prevention of nonmedically-attended illnesses in older children and adults. From a healthcare system perspective, the program was estimated to be cost-effective at a vaccine price below approximately 120 Australian dollars ($AU), assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of $AU 50,000 per QALY gained. Excluding herd effects, the maximum cost-effective vaccine price dropped to around $AU 63 at the same assumed threshold.
Conclusions
With vaccine uptake similar to other maternal vaccines in Australia, a year-round maternal RSV vaccination program was predicted to approximately halve hospitalizations in infants aged <6 months, with small but meaningful herd effects. The program can be cost-effective depending on vaccine price, with potentially greater benefits if coverage or duration of protection exceeds base-case assumptions. These findings underscore the significant health and economic value of maternal RSV vaccination.
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory illness, particularly among young infants at the highest risk of hospitalization. With the approval of a maternal RSV vaccine in Australia, assessing its population-level health benefits and economic impact is essential.
Methods
We developed an age-structured compartmental model to simulate RSV transmission and evaluate the impact of a year-round maternal RSV vaccination program on infections and hospitalizations in Australia. The model incorporated maternal-infant interactions to better capture herd effects. By integrating the dynamic transmission model with an economic evaluation framework, we estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.
Results
Assuming base-case vaccine efficacy, 70% coverage, and six months of protection, RSV hospitalizations were projected to decline by 60% in infants aged <3 months and by 40% in those aged 3–5 months, with relatively small herd effects. Most cost savings resulted from preventing hospitalizations in infants aged under six months, which accounted for 82% of total cost savings. The majority of QALY gains stemmed from reduced mortality in older adults (via herd effects) and to a lesser extent prevention of nonmedically-attended illnesses in older children and adults. From a healthcare system perspective, the program was estimated to be cost-effective at a vaccine price below approximately 120 Australian dollars ($AU), assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of $AU 50,000 per QALY gained. Excluding herd effects, the maximum cost-effective vaccine price dropped to around $AU 63 at the same assumed threshold.
Conclusions
With vaccine uptake similar to other maternal vaccines in Australia, a year-round maternal RSV vaccination program was predicted to approximately halve hospitalizations in infants aged <6 months, with small but meaningful herd effects. The program can be cost-effective depending on vaccine price, with potentially greater benefits if coverage or duration of protection exceeds base-case assumptions. These findings underscore the significant health and economic value of maternal RSV vaccination.