Presentation Information
[MS07-01]Asymptotic Properties of Solutions to an SVEIQR COVID-19 Model with Switching Transmission.
*Timothy Robin Yang Teng1, Lu Christian Ong1, Mark Anthony C. Tolentino1 (1. Ateneo de Manila University (Philippines))
Keywords:
compartmental models,nonautonomous systems,switching systems,disease free equilibrium,global attractivity
The COVID-19 pandemic saw governments around the world impose various interventions to mitigate the spread of the disease. Foremost among them were lockdown policies, which have been primarily used to inhibit public mobility and restrict economic operations. The Philippines, in particular, experienced one of the longest lockdowns worldwide through the implementation of Community Quarantine (CQ) restrictions. The CQs are classified based on their level of stringency, and shifts between CQ classifications often occurred based on the health officials' and decision-makers’ assessment of the COVID-19 situation. Mathematically, we can represent such changes in these restrictions over time by using a switching transmission rate.
In this study, we construct an SVEIQR compartmental with a switching transmission rate to represent the disease transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in the Philippines. We subsequently analyze the basic properties of its solutions, as well as derive conditions for these solutions to converge to the disease free equilibrium. The conditions are based on threshold parameters Rmax when the transmission rate is a bounded piecewise constant function, and Rave when the aforementioned transmission rate is also periodic. Numerical simulations are presented thereafter to illustrate the potential asymptotic behavior of these solutions and verify the established results. This work builds on the literature on compartmental models with switching transmission rates, and provides further insights on how shifting CQ measures can affect COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the long run.
In this study, we construct an SVEIQR compartmental with a switching transmission rate to represent the disease transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in the Philippines. We subsequently analyze the basic properties of its solutions, as well as derive conditions for these solutions to converge to the disease free equilibrium. The conditions are based on threshold parameters Rmax when the transmission rate is a bounded piecewise constant function, and Rave when the aforementioned transmission rate is also periodic. Numerical simulations are presented thereafter to illustrate the potential asymptotic behavior of these solutions and verify the established results. This work builds on the literature on compartmental models with switching transmission rates, and provides further insights on how shifting CQ measures can affect COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the long run.