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Mon. Jul 7, 2025

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Can Transmission Rates Vary? Using Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINN) for Modeling COVID-19 Epidemiological Dynamics

During the COVID-19 pandemic, compartmental models were widely used for generating scenario-based forecasts that considered various effects of interventions (e.g., lockdowns, vaccinations). While the pandemic has already ended, COVID-19 and other infectious diseases continue to burden countries worldwide, including the Philippines. It thus remains valuable to study these models to support efforts on disease surveillance and pandemic preparedness.<br>This minisymposium features talks on the recent developments in the analysis of COVID-19 and vector-borne disease (VBD) models. Two talks study the long-term dynamics of solutions of these models, both of which assume piecewise-constant transmission rates. This assumption attempts to capture the shifting mobility conditions due to changes in government-imposed restrictions for the COVID-19 model, and the varying population-level interventions for the VBD model. The third talk analyzes the co-infection dynamics of the two diseases. These talks cover properties of solutions, and simulations to illustrate the theoretical results.<br>The last two talks feature studies that link compartmental models with local case data in the Philippines. One talk evaluates the effectiveness of pandemic restrictions using a calibrated COVID-19 compartmental model with a piecewise-constant transmission rate. The second considers a COVID-19 compartmental model that employs a physics-informed neural network approach to construct a time-varying transmission rate.

From Theory to Data-Driven Applications: Understanding Infectious Diseases in a Lower-Middle Income Country Using Compartmental Modelling

Joint Meeting of Asian Conference for Mathematical Biology and Annual Meeting of Japanese Society for Mathematical Biology (ACMB-JSMB2025)

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[MS07-05]Can Transmission Rates Vary? Using Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINN) for Modeling COVID-19 Epidemiological Dynamics

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