Presentation Information
[POS-16]Metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases: analysis of the influence of hubs in a multi-city network using a lattice link model
*Nariyuki Nakagiri1, Yukio Sakisaka1,2, Kazunori Sato3 (1. University of Hyogo (Japan), 2. Nakamura Gakuen University Junior College (Japan), 3. Shizuoka University (Japan))
Keywords:
Lattice linkage model,SIS model,Compartmental model,network,hub effect
Controlling infectious diseases is extremely difficult, yet critical in protecting human life. We study a susceptibility-infectivity-susceptibility (SIS) model of a multi-city networks, a simple model of repeated infection and recovery processes in which peoples (“agents”) are assumed to live in spatially distant cities and move randomly between them. This study is analyzed and compared using two methods: computer simulation of the agent-based model and a theory of meta-population dynamics. Both the simulation and theory revealed that hub cities play an important role in the control of the spread of infection. It was also found that quarantine measures targeting only the hub cities could eliminate the entire infection.