[POS] Infectious Diseases

[POS-20] Analysis of African Swine Fever Transmission Dynamics through a Multi – Patch Modelling Approach Reflecting Wild Boar Behavior

*Changdae Son¹, Yongin Choi², Hyojung Lee¹ (1. Kyungpook national university (Korea), 2. Sungkyunkwan University (Korea))

Keywords:

Infectious disease,Spatial transmission,Stochastic model

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a livestock disease that affects animals belonging to the pig family. In south Korea, ASF was first reported in 2019 and has continued to occur, with the outbreak areas expanding. Due to its almost 100% mortality rate, the disease can result in serious damage if it spreads to pig farms. Most cases have occurred among wild boars, with relatively few infections reported in domestic pigs. However, due to various factors, there is a risk that the disease could spread from wild boars to domestic pigs. Such spread could cause significant damage to the pig farming industry. Therefore, predicting potential ASF outbreaks areas in wild boars and implementing control measures are important. To support this, we aim to enhance a model for identifying ASF high-risk areas and to use it to suggest effective policy scenarios. To address these aims, we propose a stochastic model that reflects the behavior of wild boars. The wild boar behavior incorporated in the model reflects their tendency to stay around a certain area, but occasionally move to new locations in search of better habitats. To incorporate this behavior into the model, we employed a species distribution model to estimate regional habitat suitability, which served as the basis for defining the probability of movement between different areas. We then incorporated this movement probability into a multi – patch Susceptible – Infectious – Recovery (SIR) model, which simulates disease transmission across multiple regions. Using this model, we estimated the spread of ASF and assessed the risk level for each region. In addition, we analyzed various policy scenarios to evaluate their effectiveness in preventing the spread of ASF.