Presentation Information
[SS05-08]Parameter identification of an immune-Hand,foot and mouth disease model
*Xue-Zhi Li1, Junyuan Yang2 (1. Henan Finance University (China), 2. Shanxi University (China))
Keywords:
Parameter identification,immuno-epidemiological HFMD model,least identifiable parameter,Monte Carlo simulation
Parameter identifiability analysis seeks to establish whether model parameters can be uniquely determined from observable outputs, and it is a crucial step for the epidemic prediction and effective control designs. In this talk, we build upon the nested modeling framework positing that the rates of host-to-host transmission, virus release, and recovery are intricately linked to the variables governing the within-host immune system. Consequently, we propose an elaborate framework termed the immuno-epidemiological hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) model. Through implementing the techniques of principal component analysis (PCA) and eigenvalue analysis, we meticulously arrange the hierarchy of parameters within the multi-scale immuno-epidemiological model, starting from the least identifiable parameter and progressing towards the most identifiable one. The outcomes of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) determine the unidentifiable parameters of the model. Finally, sensitivity analysis has revealed that the within host kinetics considerably influences the temporal dynamics of the HFMD model at the population level.