[SS10] Epidemic Modeling: Advances in Disease Control and Future Challenges

[SS10-01] Estimating vaccine effectiveness among wildlife without using population dynamics data

*Ryosuke Omori¹, Ryota Matsuyama², Yoko Hayama², Takehisa Yamamoto² (1. Hokkaido Univerisity (Japan), 2. National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (Japan))

Keywords:

Infectious disease epidemiology,Wildlife,Model-based inference

Most emerging infectious diseases in recent years have introduced from wildlife, controlling infectious disease outbreaks in wildlife is essential for the control of emerging infectious diseases among human. However, infectious diseases in wildlife remain poorly understood. One major obstacle being the lack of sufficient data. The dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks are influenced by the population dynamics of their hosts, however, it is usually lacked. On the other hand, when an infectious disease affecting livestock spreads among wildlife, surveillance of wildlife populations is conducted to assess the outbreak status. In this study, we use the outbreak data of Classical Swine Fever Virus (CSFV) in wild boars in Japan as a model case to explain what kind of wildlife disease surveillance data can be available for epidemiological analysis. Based on the available data, we constructed a mathematical model describing CSFV transmission among wild boars and derived a relation between the data and epidemiological parameter. Using the derived relation, we proposed a method for estimating the short-term and long-term effects of vaccination, providing an approach for infectious disease outbreak analysis without relying on wildlife population dynamics data.