Presentation Information
[SS12-02]Optimal vaccine allocation strategy in the early stage of COVID-19 in Japan
*Toshikazu Kuniya1, Taisuke Nakata2, Daisuke Fujii3 (1. Kobe University (Japan), 2. University of Tokyo (Japan), 3. Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan))
Keywords:
Epidemic model,Vaccination,Age structure,COVID-19
We constructed an age-structured epidemic model with vaccination to study how to allocate the limited supply of vaccines in the early stage of epidemic. We focused on two topics. The first one is the optimal vaccination interval between the first and second doses. The second one is the optimal allocation ratio between elderly and non-elderly people. By performing numerical simulation, we found that the optimal interval becomes longer if the relative efficacy of the first dose to the second dose becomes higher, and the heterogeneity in the age-dependent susceptibility affects the optimal allocation ratio. In addition, we performed a counterfactual simulation to show that the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan in 2021 could be highly mitigated if the optimal vaccine allocation strategy was taken.