[2I11-15] Operation Management, Inspection and Maintenance

3:00 PM - 3:15 PM JST(6:00 AM - 6:15 AM UTC)

[2I11] Effect of the error in ultrasonic thickness measurement on the pipe wall thinning evaluation using the Bayes theorem

Kantaro Ikeda¹, Takuma Tomizawa¹, *Noritaka Yusa¹ (1. Tohoku Univ.)

Keywords:

pipe wall thinning management,non-destructive inspection,ultrasonic thickness inspection

This study reports the effect of the error in ultrasonic thickness measurements on the pipe wall thinning evaluation. This study considered periodical inspections of pipes whose wall thicknesses were gradually thinned. The pipe wall thicknesses were evaluated based on the results of the inspections. The results of numerical evaluations confirmed that pipe wall thicknesses and pipe failure probabilities evaluated using the Bayes theorem were more reliable than the ones by the conventional least squares method, especially when the pipe wall thinning rate is not constant.