[3E05-09] Accident Analysis, In-service Inspection, Spent Fuel Pool

11:20 AM - 11:35 AM JST(2:20 AM - 2:35 AM UTC)

[3E08] Modelling for Maintenance Using System Reliability with Degradations in Multiple Components and Their Interactions

*Suzune Katayama¹, Kenta Murakami¹ (1. UTokyo)

Keywords:

Maintenance,Model,Degradation,Dependency,Hidden Markov Model

Modeling techniques for estimation and prediction of degradation state is important in enhancing risk-informed decision making. In this study, a system that consists of a pump and a valve connected with pipes is considered as a specific example, and a model that dynamically estimates the degradation state of components in multi-component systems with dependencies is developed. To solve the problem of data shortage in systems which are difficult to sequentially observe the degradation state, the model utilizes inference with information from relevant components or systems. To confirm the usefulness of inference and to explore appropriate methods, parameter learning is conducted using the developed model.