Presentation Information
[S22-13]Gaussian process modeling of time-dependent background seismicity
*Yuanyuan Niu1, Jiancang Zhuang1, Giuseppe Petrillo2 (1. The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 2. Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore)
The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, a class of self-exciting Hawkes-type point processes, has been widely used to analyze seismicity. However, its standard formulation does not account for temporal variations in background seismicity and thus becomes limited in regions affected by slow slip events (SSEs). SSEs induce temporally and spatially heterogeneous stress changes that affect the background seismicity, making spatiotemporal modeling of background seismicity essential. In this research, we develop a Gaussian process-based model for temporal and spatiotemporal background seismicity, infer it through nonparametric Bayesian methods, and aim to enable a quantitative analysis of how SSEs spatiotemporally affect background seismicity.