講演情報
[S22-13]Gaussian process modeling of time-dependent background seismicity
*牛 源源1、庄 建倉1、Petrillo Giuseppe2 (1. 統計数理研究所、2. 南洋理工大学，シンガポール地球観測所（EOS）)
The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, a class of self-exciting Hawkes-type point processes, has been widely used to analyze seismicity. However, its standard formulation does not account for temporal variations in background seismicity and thus becomes limited in regions affected by slow slip events (SSEs). SSEs induce temporally and spatially heterogeneous stress changes that affect the background seismicity, making spatiotemporal modeling of background seismicity essential. In this research, we develop a Gaussian process-based model for temporal and spatiotemporal background seismicity, infer it through nonparametric Bayesian methods, and aim to enable a quantitative analysis of how SSEs spatiotemporally affect background seismicity.