講演情報
[AAS14-P02]Projection analysis of Heavy Precipitation across Indonesia on CMIP6 Multi Ensemble Models
*Adikusuma Kenangdjatu Bimaprawira1、Takeshi Yamazaki1 (1.Tohoku University)
キーワード：
Projection、CMIP6、Precipitation、Indonesia、Indices
Anthropogenic climate change has affected global weather and climate conditions. As time goes by, the uncertain conditions caused by global warming are leading to increasingly frequent extreme weather conditions globally. Indonesia is one of the regions with relatively frequent precipitation due to various global and regional climate influences, but will this also affect extreme conditions in the region? We attempted to study changes in heavy precipitation characteristics through ETCDDI indices such as R20mm, R50mm, Rx1day, Rx5day, and PRCPTOT for the mid-future (2041-2070) and far-future (2071-2100) future periods using the CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble Mean in the 4 scenarios projection (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). We used the 5 CMIP6 Models (CanESM5, CESM2, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-MM) with the output of the five climate indices to be used as the CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble. Our current findings generally identify positive changes or wetter conditions in all five indices in the mid-future and increasingly significant changes in the far-future in Indonesia. Of the five indices we tested, the R50mm, Rx1day, and Rx5day indices experienced an increase in the frequency and amount of precipitation in Indonesia in all four climate scenarios. This significant increase occurs in Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua. However, this is inversely proportional to the R20mm and PRCPTOT indices, which show a decrease in the frequency and amount of precipitation in some regions of Indonesia in the same climate scenario. This decrease occurs in Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara. Meanwhile, the island of Sumatra shows a tendency for both conditions, where the R20mm and PRCPTOT indices show a decrease in the southern part of the island, but the R50mm, Rx1day, and Rx5day indices show an increase in percentage across the entire island of Sumatra. Overall, the islands of Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua are regions that show signs of an increase in the frequency and wetter precipitation conditions in the mid-future and far-future.