講演情報
[MIS02-09]Heat island and dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena in a big city
*Oksana Lipka1、Aleksandr Aleinikov1、Alexandra Pavlovna Andreeva1 (1.Yu.A. Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology)
キーワード：
heat island、dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena、air temperature、surface temperature、city
Higher seasonal temperatures in cities comparing to adjacent territories have observed around the world. They are associated with heat waves and abnormally high summer temperatures. Moscow area is 2561 km2, which was increased in 2012 by 2.5 times. Population is above 13 million people, which is more concentrated within old Moscow boundaries. It is the biggest city in Europe and 22nd in the world, so a heat island impact can be significant for the research and different in old and new city parts.
We used MODIS satellite images from 2000 to 2024 to identify the heat island by surface temperature. It is noticeable throughout the year: the surface temperature in the old city is 2-5 °C higher than surrounding areas. The heat island is most markable in winter and summer and almost desapper in autumn. It is possible to identify the core of the heat island in the city center inside the summer isotherm of +21.2 °C. The surface temperature is higher there by 5 °C or more comparing outside the city. It results in forming of unfavorable conditions for people health during the summer season.
Primary data from the Moscow-VDNKh weather station (located inside the heat island, but not in its core) on air temperature were compared with the results of observations from four stations located in the same biome of coniferous-deciduous forests and reflecting general conditions: Gdov, Staraya Russa, Smolensk, Nizhny Novgorod. The data available in open sources from 1967 to 2024. Due to the heat island, the air temperature in Moscow in summer (+18.6 °C) is higher than in the region, and is close to Nizhny Novgorod, which is located 400 km to the east in more continental conditions. In winter, the temperature (-6.4 °C) is higher than in the Moscow region and Novgorod, but lower than in cities located to the west and under the higher influence of the Atlantic Ocean. In the abnormally hot summer of 2010, the average monthly temperature in July reached 26 °C in Moscow, while the long-term average for the entire period is +19.1 °, and since 2000 - +20.2 °C.
The air temperature from 1967 to 2024 is on average 1 °C lower than from 2000 to 2024 at the same meteorological stations. Over the 25 years from 2000 to 2024, Moscow's surface temperature increased by an average of 1.8 °C. The largest contribution to the temperature increases observed winter season: +2.93 °C, minimum – in spring: +1.25 °C. The average monthly surface temperature in winter is 5-10 °C lower than the air temperature, in summer the values are almost equal, a correlation coefficient is 0.99. The average annual surface temperature is 2.5 °C lower than the air temperature, with a correlation coefficient of 0.83.
The formation of the urban heat island results in increased or decreased frequency of dangerous meteorological phenomena in Moscow comparing to surrounding areas. Thus, abnormally low temperatures and frosts in Moscow are recorded approximately twice as rarely, and heat waves in summer and unfavorably high air temperatures are in 1.5-2 times more common than in the region.
There is also a 10-15% increase in precipitation over the city center. The duration of snow cover in Moscow is on average 2 weeks shorter, and its maximum height is identical. The frequency of heavy snowfalls in Moscow and the region is close, and heavy rains fall in Moscow more often.
We used MODIS satellite images from 2000 to 2024 to identify the heat island by surface temperature. It is noticeable throughout the year: the surface temperature in the old city is 2-5 °C higher than surrounding areas. The heat island is most markable in winter and summer and almost desapper in autumn. It is possible to identify the core of the heat island in the city center inside the summer isotherm of +21.2 °C. The surface temperature is higher there by 5 °C or more comparing outside the city. It results in forming of unfavorable conditions for people health during the summer season.
Primary data from the Moscow-VDNKh weather station (located inside the heat island, but not in its core) on air temperature were compared with the results of observations from four stations located in the same biome of coniferous-deciduous forests and reflecting general conditions: Gdov, Staraya Russa, Smolensk, Nizhny Novgorod. The data available in open sources from 1967 to 2024. Due to the heat island, the air temperature in Moscow in summer (+18.6 °C) is higher than in the region, and is close to Nizhny Novgorod, which is located 400 km to the east in more continental conditions. In winter, the temperature (-6.4 °C) is higher than in the Moscow region and Novgorod, but lower than in cities located to the west and under the higher influence of the Atlantic Ocean. In the abnormally hot summer of 2010, the average monthly temperature in July reached 26 °C in Moscow, while the long-term average for the entire period is +19.1 °, and since 2000 - +20.2 °C.
The air temperature from 1967 to 2024 is on average 1 °C lower than from 2000 to 2024 at the same meteorological stations. Over the 25 years from 2000 to 2024, Moscow's surface temperature increased by an average of 1.8 °C. The largest contribution to the temperature increases observed winter season: +2.93 °C, minimum – in spring: +1.25 °C. The average monthly surface temperature in winter is 5-10 °C lower than the air temperature, in summer the values are almost equal, a correlation coefficient is 0.99. The average annual surface temperature is 2.5 °C lower than the air temperature, with a correlation coefficient of 0.83.
The formation of the urban heat island results in increased or decreased frequency of dangerous meteorological phenomena in Moscow comparing to surrounding areas. Thus, abnormally low temperatures and frosts in Moscow are recorded approximately twice as rarely, and heat waves in summer and unfavorably high air temperatures are in 1.5-2 times more common than in the region.
There is also a 10-15% increase in precipitation over the city center. The duration of snow cover in Moscow is on average 2 weeks shorter, and its maximum height is identical. The frequency of heavy snowfalls in Moscow and the region is close, and heavy rains fall in Moscow more often.