講演情報
[PS-01-20]Hydrological Implications of AMOC-Driven Climate Change in 12 Global Cities
*Muhammad Umer1, Naota Hanasaki1 (1. National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))
キーワード：
AMOC、urban hydrology、climate change、precipitation、oceanic circulation
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to weaken or shut down under future climate warming, potentially altering global hydro-climatic conditions. This study investigates the hydrological implications of AMOC-driven climate change across 12 major global cities using climate forcing derived from the MIROC6 large ensemble framework and simulations from the H08 global hydrological model. Two scenarios representing AMOC-active and AMOC-shutdown conditions were analyzed to isolate circulation-driven climate differences. Results indicate a clear hemispheric temperature response, with cooling in Northern Hemisphere cities and warming in Southern Hemisphere cities under AMOC shutdown conditions. Hydrological responses varied substantially among cities, with Sydney showing pronounced increases in mean and extreme discharge, while Cape Town exhibited relatively weak hydrological sensitivity. Seasonal discharge timing and magnitude were also altered in several cities. These findings highlight the importance of considering large-scale ocean circulation changes when assessing future urban hydrological risks and climate adaptation strategies.