講演情報
[PS-02-45]Impact of Land Cover Dynamics on Seasonal Inflow: A 38-Year Case Study of Saguling Dam
*YUANGGA RIZKY ILLAHI1, JUN MAGOME2, KAZUYOSHI SOUMA2, HIROSHI ISHIDAIRA2 (1. Integrated Graduate School of Medicine, Engineering and Agricultural Sciences, University of Yamanashi, 2. Interdisciplinary Center for River Basin Environment, University of Yamanashi)
キーワード：
Dynamic Land Use Land Cover、Water availability、Trend analysis、Watershed Management、Policy Change
Land use and land cover change driven by urbanization and policy shifts affects reservoir inflow and performance. As policy driven LULC transformation strongly influences hydrological processes, the Saguling Dam represents a critical case study. Constructed in 1985 in the Citarum River Basin, the area has undergone significant LULC changes associated with Bandung industrialization and continuous urban expansion. Using SWAT+, this study evaluated long term impacts on water availability from 1985 to 2023. Results showed rapid expansion of developed land and decline in tree cover. Annual inflow did not exhibit a significant long term trend with p = 0.4388 despite a decreasing tendency. However, clear seasonal contrasts were observed with significantly increasing wet season flows and decreasing dry season flows. These results indicate intensified hydrological variability and highlight the need to incorporate dynamic LULC into reservoir operation and water resource management.