Presentation Information
[O02-P02]Structural Drivers and Institutional Constraints of the Energy Transition in Fossil Rent Dependent West African Economies★Invited Papers
*Josephine Andrea Niangue1 (1.Sophia University)
Keywords:
Energy transitions,Renewable Energy,Resource curse,CO2 emissions,Governance
The transition toward low-carbon energy systems presents acute challenges for fossil-rent-dependent economies. This study investigates drivers and constraints of energy transition in West Africa using panel data for 15 countries (1996-2021), employing both fixed effects and two-step System GMM estimation.
Results reveal strong path dependence in both renewable energy consumption and carbon emissions, indicating that past energy structures significantly shape current trajectories. Renewable energy expansion is robustly associated with carbon emission reductions (-0.0015, p<0.01 in GMM), supporting its role in regional decarbonization. However, once we account for system dynamics and endogeneity through System GMM estimation, contemporaneous policy variables show limited within-country effects.
The divergence between fixed effects and GMM results suggests that energy transitions operate primarily through slow-moving structural channels rather than short-run policy variation. While cross-country differences in governance, oil dependence, and financial development correlate strongly with energy outcomes, within-country policy changes show weak immediate effects once system inertia is accounted for. Policies must therefore emphasize long-term structural transformation and sustained commitment rather than expecting rapid responses to short-term interventions.
Results reveal strong path dependence in both renewable energy consumption and carbon emissions, indicating that past energy structures significantly shape current trajectories. Renewable energy expansion is robustly associated with carbon emission reductions (-0.0015, p<0.01 in GMM), supporting its role in regional decarbonization. However, once we account for system dynamics and endogeneity through System GMM estimation, contemporaneous policy variables show limited within-country effects.
The divergence between fixed effects and GMM results suggests that energy transitions operate primarily through slow-moving structural channels rather than short-run policy variation. While cross-country differences in governance, oil dependence, and financial development correlate strongly with energy outcomes, within-country policy changes show weak immediate effects once system inertia is accounted for. Policies must therefore emphasize long-term structural transformation and sustained commitment rather than expecting rapid responses to short-term interventions.