Presentation Information
[AAS14-P03]Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Strong Wind Hazards over Major Cities in Japan★Invited Papers
*Tetsuya Takemi1, Nanami Naka1, Sandyarani Nayak1 (1.Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University)
Keywords:
global warming,strong wind hazard,climate change,wind engineering,climate projection,tropical cyclone
This study investigates the impacts of global warming on strong wind hazards at major cities in Japan by using a large ensemble climate prediction dataset, database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) under the historical climate and future +2K-warming and +4K-warming scenarios. To correct biases of the surface winds in the climate model data, we apply a quantile mapping method through the comparison with the surface observations over Japan. The bias correction successfully evaluates the histograms of the observed surface winds at various points throughout Japan. With the bias-corrected data, we examine the changes in winds from the historical climate to the 2-K and 4-K warming scenarios. In general, wind speeds do not clearly increase but slightly decrease with the temperature rise. In contrast, extreme winds such as the 99.99-percentile values significantly increase with the temperature rise. By choosing typhoon days, extreme winds represented as the 99-percentile, 99.9-percentile, and 99.99-percentile values clearly increase with the warming.