Presentation Information
[ACG64-02]Historical Trends and Future Projections of Climate Change Impacts on the Maasai Mara
*Benjamin Goodsell1 (1.Earth System and Climate Centre)
Keywords:
climate change,model accuracy,maasai mara,africa
This study analyzes historical and projected climate data for temperature, rainfall, and cloud cover in the Maasai Mara, Kenya, a region known for its exceptional biodiversity but often overlooked in climate research. ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts fifth-generation reanalysis), CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) and SAI (Stratospheric Aerosol Injection) datasets were used to investigate how changes in these climate variables have influenced the Maasai Mara over recent decades and into the future.
The findings indicate significant fluctuations in temperature, with an approximately 2 degree Celsius change in annual average surface air temperatures since 1940, but minimal change to precipitation totals, while cloud cover has decreased slightly. The average of CMIP6 projections indicate reasonable alignment of temperature, cloud coverage and rainfall predictions with observations. While the change in rainfall through to 2100 is minimal, cloud cover is predicted to increase marginally, while annual average temperature increase may reach 4 degrees Celsius under the SSP585 scenario over the 2015 to 2100 period, with more moderate increases for SSP245. Application of SAI based on CESM and UKESM models reduce temperatures by limited amounts.
The results highlight the importance of investigating lesser-explored ecosystems like the Maasai Mara, and the ability of climate models to accurately predict change in highly biodiverse systems in Africa. Results also indicate that even with application of geoengineering techniques to address climate change impacts, there may be limited benefits to this particular geographical area. As such, increasing temperatures threaten biodiversity and essential ecosystem services regardless, and stakeholders must be prepared to implement adaptive and resilient management strategies for conserving this critical region amidst ongoing environmental change.
The findings indicate significant fluctuations in temperature, with an approximately 2 degree Celsius change in annual average surface air temperatures since 1940, but minimal change to precipitation totals, while cloud cover has decreased slightly. The average of CMIP6 projections indicate reasonable alignment of temperature, cloud coverage and rainfall predictions with observations. While the change in rainfall through to 2100 is minimal, cloud cover is predicted to increase marginally, while annual average temperature increase may reach 4 degrees Celsius under the SSP585 scenario over the 2015 to 2100 period, with more moderate increases for SSP245. Application of SAI based on CESM and UKESM models reduce temperatures by limited amounts.
The results highlight the importance of investigating lesser-explored ecosystems like the Maasai Mara, and the ability of climate models to accurately predict change in highly biodiverse systems in Africa. Results also indicate that even with application of geoengineering techniques to address climate change impacts, there may be limited benefits to this particular geographical area. As such, increasing temperatures threaten biodiversity and essential ecosystem services regardless, and stakeholders must be prepared to implement adaptive and resilient management strategies for conserving this critical region amidst ongoing environmental change.