Session Details

[A-CG64]Projection and detection of global environmental change

Fri. May 29, 2026 1:45 PM - 3:15 PM JST
Fri. May 29, 2026 4:45 AM - 6:15 AM UTC
104 International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe
convener:Michio Kawamiya(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Lynn Hirose(Princeton University), V Ramaswamy(NOAA GFDL), Kaoru Tachiiri(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Hiroaki Tatebe(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Chairperson:Hirose Lynn(Princeton University), Tatebe Hiroaki(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Tachiiri Kaoru(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Kawamiya Michio(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)
Manifestations of global warming and related anthropogenic environmental changes are becoming evident in a number of parameters of scientific and societal interest. Projected in the future are more frequent extreme weather events, rising sea levels, ocean acidification and hypoxia, and large-scale ecosystem changes. The 7th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) is now underway with a perspective of possible contributions to the 7th Assessment Report (AR7) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), due to be published in early 2028. In addition to CMIP7, various other types of projection and prediction research are also flourishing, including event attribution, model development incorporating the interaction between environmental change and socioeconomics, and high-resolution model development advocating a "global digital twin", and applications resulting from these investigations. This session hosts the latest research findings with a view to modeling global-to-regional projections and predictions, and interdisciplinary collaborations including those with observational research and linkages to social sciences. We welcome presentations on topics such as the initial analysis of results obtained from the CMIP7 Fast Track experiments, and the development of high-resolution models for future applications.

[ACG64-01]Development of an AGCM for High-Resolution Climate Simulation Combining MIROC and NICAM

*Shuhei Matsugishi1, Tomoki Ohno1, Chihiro Kodama2, Miyakawa Tomoki1, Hisashi Yashiro3, Hiroaki Tatebe2, Takuro Michibata4, Shingo Watanabe2, Nagio Hirota1, Kentaroh Suzuki1, Masahiro Watanabe1 (1.Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 2.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3.National Institute for Environmental Studies, 4.Kyushu University)

[ACG64-02]Historical Trends and Future Projections of Climate Change Impacts on the Maasai Mara

*Benjamin Goodsell1 (1.Earth System and Climate Centre)

[ACG64-03]A Phase-Insensitive Framework for Evaluating Terrestrial GPP Variability in CMIP6 Earth System Models

*Yusuke Satoh1, Tomohiro Hajima1 (1.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

[ACG64-04]Model Evaluation of Iron-containing Aerosols from Anthropogenic and Lithogenic Sources Based on Observations

*Akinori Ito1, Minako Kurisu2, Kana Nagashima1 (1.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 2.The University of Tokyo)

[ACG64-05]Emergent constraint on the future global temperature and remaining carbon budget

*Irina Melnikova1,2, Tokuta Yokohata1, Hideo Shiogama1 (1.National Institute for Environmental Studies, 2.Tsukuba University)

[ACG64-06]Uncertainty Quantification of an Earth System Model for risk assessment of Climate Tipping via Non-stationary Extreme Events

*Amane Kubo1, Yohei Sawada1 (1.University of Tokyo)