Presentation Information
[O03-P04]Prediction of the future fish and kelp biomass under the global warming condition★Invited Papers
*Haruka Nishikawa1, Eladawy Ahmad1, Kuroda Hiroshi2, Iagarashi Hiromichi1 (1.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 2. Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University)
Keywords:
Global warming,Kelp,Fishery resources
When we consider the future of the ocean, several concerns arise. Of Corse, sustainability of beautiful landscape is one important issue. But the food security is also an important issue. Will the ocean supply our food in future? In the old days, people had believed that there are infinite fish in the ocean and they cannot exhaust it. However, nowadays, we understand that some species are nearly extinct by overfishing. In addition, we have already known that some species are very sensitive to the climate change. In this study, we focused on the Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) and kelp and predict the future catch and distribution. Japanese sardine underpins the Japanese fish-eating culture. It is not consumed directly, but also it is used as feed for farmed fish, like tuna. Simultaneously, it is characterized by huge catch fluctuation, which has occurred even before the anthropogenic global warming started. Kelp is a representative seaweed of subarctic region. It has been transported from Hokkaido to all parts of Japan for over a millennium and is utilized as an indispensable ingredient in Japanese cuisine. However, since the latter half of the 20th century, significant changes in its distribution and species composition have occurred, and the influence of global warming has been strongly emphasized. Since the progress of global warming depends on the future human activity and there are several types of prediction models, which vary depending on factors such as co-ordination type, future projection subjects to uncertainty. To mitigate this uncertainty, future projection simulations employ a method known as ensemble forecasting, which utilizes multiple scenarios and models to explore a range of possible future. Based on ensemble forecasting, this study estimates whether Japanese sardines will continue to exhibit their historical patterns of fluctuation, identifies the specific timing of these shifts, and determines which kelp production areas across Hokkaido are most susceptible or resilient to the effects of global warming.