Presentation Information
[O12-P27]Effects of Rising Sea Surface Temperatures on
the Frequency and Intensity of Localized Heavy Rainfall Events in the Tohoku Region, Japan
*Yoshifumi MUKASA1, *Hinata SUZUKI1, Tomoya ARAKAWA1, Ena ITABASHI1, Sosuke YASHIMA1 (1. Miyagi Prefecture Tagajo High School)
Keywords:
sea surface temperature (SST),localized heavy rain,AI cress
In recent years, disasters caused by heavy rainfall, such as Typhoon Hagibis (2019), have become increasingly severe and frequent. Since cloud formation is essential for precipitation, this study focuses on sea surface temperature (SST) as a key factor. The hypothesis that "rising SST increases the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall" was formulated and tested through data analysis and simulations. Correlation analysis between SST anomalies (deviation from long-term averages) and the frequency of localized heavy rainfall across Japan and the Tohoku region revealed a positive correlation. Notably, the results suggested a potential threshold effect in the Tohoku region. Furthermore, numerical simulations using AI CReSS demonstrated that precipitation intensity increases with rising SST. These findings suggest that rising SST likely contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, potentially by enhancing the supply of water vapor.