Presentation Information
[3K0504-06-02]Impact of geopolitical competitions on lithium supply for EV - a system dynamic perspective
○Wenhua Li1, Tsuyoshi Adachi2 (1. Henan University of Technology, 2. Akita University)
Chairperson: ジョン サンヒ（秋田大学）、パク イルファン（北海道大学）
Keywords:
Geopolitical competition,Lithium,Electric vehicles (EVs),Supply risk
Geopolitical competition is increasingly disrupting global supply chains for critical minerals. Unlike earlier manifestations of resource nationalism—driven mainly by rent-seeking behavior in geopolitically peripheral supplier states—contending major powers from the geopolitical core now play a more dominant role in shaping the critical minerals landscape. This study embeds geopolitical competition risks into the lithium supply chain for electric vehicles (EVs) and systematically examines the impacts of three distinct forms of such competition: (1) resource rent-seeking by supplier states in geopolitically peripheral regions; (2) downstream dominance control by supplier states in geopolitically core regions; and (3) upstream supply chain control by demand-side states in geopolitically core regions. Using a system dynamics modeling approach, the research simulates and projects potential supply chain trajectories under these competing geopolitical scenarios for the period 2024–2050. This research analyzes the projected shifts in global lithium resource supply structures and lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity allocation across three policy-based scenarios: the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and the Carbon Neutrality Scenario (CNS). The study further evaluates the potential escalation of geopolitical competition driven by lithium resource scarcity under each scenario. The findings aim to provide a structured analytical framework for understanding how varying modes of geopolitical intervention may influence the security, stability, and sustainability of lithium-dependent EV supply chains in the coming decades.