Education/Health 1

5:20 PM - 5:35 PM JST(8:20 AM - 8:35 AM UTC)

[kNAyHR2S-03] Mathematical Modelling of Family-Based Approach as a Control Strategy for Gastric Ulcers and Gastric Cancer

*Glory Kawira Mutua¹, Musyoka Kinyili¹, Dominic Makaa Kitavi¹ (1. University of Embu (Kenya))

Keywords:

gastric cancer,gastric ulcers,compartmental model,family-based approach,numerical simulation

This study formulates a compartmental model to assess the effect of a family-based Helicobacter pylori infection control and management (FBCM) strategy against the transmission of Helicobacter pylori infection and its consequent development of gastric ulcers and gastric cancer. We perform a thorough mathematical analysis as well as validate the model by fitting it to real data of gastric cancer cases as recorded by Meru Teaching and Referral Hospital, Kenya. We find out that the model has a unique disease-free equilibrium that is locally and globally asymptotically stable when R₀ < 1, and a unique endemic equilibrium exists whenever R₀ > 1. The best numerical results are achieved when we combine both preventive measures (sensitization and family-based approach) and curative measures (prompt treatment and adherence), leading to the highest decrease in the cases of gastric ulcers and gastric cancer. The study produces clear evidence that the combination of effective sensitization campaigns, high efficacy of FBCM, effective treatment of gastric ulcers, and adherence to drug protocols makes integrated household-level interventions highly effective in reducing the transmission and preventing the progression of mild to severe disease. The use of such strategies offers an effective means of reducing Helicobacter pylori-related gastric ulcers and gastric cancer outcomes. This trend eventually leads to the eradication of the diseases over time.