講演情報
[1I10]The New Political Economy of International Development: Peace, the Anthropocene, and Global Fragmentation
*Haja RAJAONARISON1, Nargiza Nasymbekova (1. International College of Liberal Arts, Yamanashi Gakuin University)
キーワード：
Anthropocene、Aid effectiveness、Conflict bargains、Global fragmentation、State capacity
How does the fate of peace shift when ecological shocks shrink what is possible, and can development finance tip the balance toward stability or conflict? We develop a theory of peace for the Anthropocene, emphasizing the interplay between international development finance, ecological volatility, and geopolitical fragmentation. Elites and challengers negotiate over a social contract funded by both domestic rents and foreign aid, with peace only achievable when transfers remain fiscally viable and credibly enforced. Our analysis yields three core results. First, an “environmental peace threshold” exists: worsening ecological conditions shrink available surplus and can trigger conflict. Second, the composition of aid matters more than its volume-aid that enhances capacity and enforcement broadens possibilities for peace, whereas transfer-heavy aid that increases the prize of office narrows them, explaining conflicting empirical findings on aid and violence. Third, hysteresis sets in as conflict undermines both fiscal capacity and political credibility; fragmented donor competition further undermines commitments, deepening these effects. Effective policy should be countercyclical in volume and prioritize capacity building to support stable peace amid Anthropocene risks, while poorly coordinated transfer aid risks perpetuating conflict traps.
コメント
コメントの閲覧・投稿にはログインが必要です。ログイン