[K1] Promises and Realities of Inclusion: Inequalities in Social Protection, Labor Markets, and Environmental Governance

11:00 〜 11:30英語

[1K04] Economic and environmental transitions: Exploring dynamics in Indian districts through Markov chains

*Cesar Diego ECHEVARRIA BARRIGA¹ (1. Nagoya University)

キーワード：

Income、Pollution、India

Unhealthy air quality remains a pressing issue in India. While there is ongoing debate on whether pollution falls as income increases for countries across the globe (Deniz & Stengos, 2025; Gravina & Lanzafame, 2025), there is less discussion about what happens within individual countries, especially within developing countries. In this paper, we explore the relationship between income and pollution within India. We consider Indian districts between 1998 and 2019 and implement Markov chains, in their marginal and joint variants alike. Markov chains are a method that quantifies the probability of categorical changes over time. In this paper, such categories represent income and pollution quintiles, ranging from the lowest to the highest. The greatest challenge in evaluating the connection between income and pollution across Indian districts is data deficiency. Official records are either noncomparable or incomplete. We thus begin by building our own indicators using data that integrates satellite and statistical information. For income, we convert rasters (images made up of small grid cells, each representing a value) of economic output and population into numbers that correspond to the administrative boundaries of Indian districts. Such a procedure is facilitated by Google Earth Engine. For pollution, we perform a similar operation, this time using QGIS to extract values from rasters. Having estimated income and pollution, we proceed to examine their evolution. In the short run, we observe that districts have a moderate tendency to move across income and pollution quintiles. In the long run, however, we find that there is no single dominant outcome. Although high-income districts may experience low pollution, this is not always the case. Overall, income and pollution are likely to interact in complex ways. Such results point to the importance of deliberate interventions to reduce pollution, as income alone does not guarantee healthy air quality.