[M1] 平和構築の多次元的アプローチ：国家・地域・コミュニティレベルでの紛争対応

9:30 〜 10:00英語

[1M01] Social and Economic Factors behind Conflicts in the Kyrgyz-Tajikistan Border Region: Towards Peace and Stability in the Ferghana Valley

*Naoki NIHEI¹ (1. Waseda University)

キーワード：

Central Asia、Ferghana Valley、border conflict、Social Cohesion

The objective of this study is to ascertain the factors that precipitate inter-communal conflicts in the border regions between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which encompass the Fergana Valley in Central Asia. To this end, an analysis will be conducted of socio-economic data pertaining to conflict cases in the period from 2015 to 2018. The primary sources of data are conflict and social survey data by the UNDP's Peace Building and Conflict Prevention Project in the Border Regions of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Following the dissolution of the USSR in 1991, the Batken Region of Kyrgyzstan—which shares a complex border with Tajikistan's Sughd Region—has become a nexus of tension, characterized by enclaves, contested villages, and overlapping territorial claims. A review of the available data reveals a high incidence of violent clashes over access to land, roads, and water. The 2022 conflict resulted in a death toll exceeding 100 individuals and led to the displacement of more than 100,000 Kyrgyz citizens from their homes, constituting the most severe loss of life on record. In March 2025, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan reached a landmark agreement to define the entire 972-kilometer borderline between the two countries, thus bringing to an end decades of intermittent clashes and unresolved territorial disputes. The border agreement was executed in a top-down manner by the two leaders. However, to proceed with land exchanges and the utilization of water and farmland at the local level, it is imperative to comprehend the lessons and risks from the past conflict and the socio-economic factors that should be considered in the demarcation and delimitation process, which is being conducted in accordance with the agreement. Contrary to the extant literature on the political history of the Fergana conflict and the potential role of third parties, this study contributes to the existing body of research on conflict analysis by emphasizing the pivotal role of social cohesion in preventing conflict between nations and fostering trust among communities across borders.