[N(poster)] ポスターセッション

英語

[1O04] Weathering the Storm: Impacts of Extreme Climate Events on Food Security in Southeast Asia and Pathways for Resilience

*Fang SU¹, *Yalei ZHAI² (1. Northwest University (China), 2. Kyoto University)

キーワード：

Extreme climate events、Food security、Future prediction、Machine learning、adaptation Paths

Southeast Asia is among the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions. The recurrence of extreme events (heatwaves, droughts, floods) constitutes a significant hazard to the region’s food production systems. We examine spatiotemporal trends in food security and extreme climate indicators across Southeast Asia (2003–2022). Using a Random Forest model and Geodetector, we assess the explanatory power of extreme climate factors, and with CMIP6 projections we estimate future food security under two scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) are applied to quantify each factor’s contribution. Our findings show: (i) From 2003 to 2022, food security generally improved across Southeast Asia, with Myanmar an exception, while cross-country disparities widened slightly. Warm extremes increased and cold extremes declined, and extreme precipitation intensified. (ii) The impacts of extreme climate factors on food security vary by time and place; considering their interactions substantially increases explanatory power. (iii) Across scenarios and time frames, Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) remains the dominant driver, though country groups differ in their sensitivity to specific extremes. These results underscore the need for tailored adaptation pathways that strengthen food-system resilience and support progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals under intensifying climate extremes.