講演情報
[1O28]A Two-Sector Model of Resource Depletion: A Numerical Analysis of the 3D Phase Diagram
*Leiva Cardenas Favio Sergio1 (1. Graduate School of International Development, Nagoya University)
キーワード：
Resource Curse、Dutch Disease、Two-Sector Growth Model、Hartwick Rule、Numerical Simulation
1. Background and Research Question: Knowing the limitations of single-sector models, a two-sector dynamic framework incorporating both a mining and an industrial sector is presented. Is there such a thing as a Resource Curse? Information, Data and 2. Analytical Methods: The model, defined by a system of three coupled ordinary differential equations for mining capital, labor, and the resource stock, is solved numerically using the Dormand-Prince (RK45) method combined with 3D phase diagram representations. The analysis of the 3D phase diagram and its isoclines, particularly the oblique asymptote of the labor isocline, provides the structural explanation for this sequenced decline.
3. Major Findings: The simulation reveals a three-stage life cycle (boom, maturity, and decline) consistent with Hotelling’s principles but featuring richer transitional dynamics. A key finding is the asymmetric response of production factors: high labor mobility generates a transitory Dutch Disease, while capital’s high intensity creates greater inertia. Without a Hartwick-style capital transfer and the maintenance of industrial investment, the model predicts a long-run economic collapse. This is a fatal, long-term Dutch Disease supported by historical precedents such as the Huancavelica Mercury Mine and the Potosí silver Mine in Peru and Bolivia respectively. By evaluating different policy settings, this paper concludes that rather than an inherent curse or a blessing, natural resources are a test of an economy’s prudence and institutional agency. Furthermore, the long-term view may depend on each polity’s characteristics. A government with infinite long-term planning chooses a different policy than those with short-term vision.
3. Major Findings: The simulation reveals a three-stage life cycle (boom, maturity, and decline) consistent with Hotelling’s principles but featuring richer transitional dynamics. A key finding is the asymmetric response of production factors: high labor mobility generates a transitory Dutch Disease, while capital’s high intensity creates greater inertia. Without a Hartwick-style capital transfer and the maintenance of industrial investment, the model predicts a long-run economic collapse. This is a fatal, long-term Dutch Disease supported by historical precedents such as the Huancavelica Mercury Mine and the Potosí silver Mine in Peru and Bolivia respectively. By evaluating different policy settings, this paper concludes that rather than an inherent curse or a blessing, natural resources are a test of an economy’s prudence and institutional agency. Furthermore, the long-term view may depend on each polity’s characteristics. A government with infinite long-term planning chooses a different policy than those with short-term vision.
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